Will the US attack Cuba next?

Pentagon planning ramps up as tensions rise

The Pentagon has expanded contingency planning for a possible U.S. military operation in Cuba as tensions escalate, according to a report from USA TODAY citing officials familiar with the directives.

Pentagon officials aren’t saying much beyond the usual. In a statement, the department said it “plans for a range of contingencies” and stands ready to carry out orders from Donald Trump. That’s boilerplate. The timing stands out.

The pressure campaign on Havana has been building for months. The administration moved earlier this year to restrict oil shipments to the island, targeting the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel as part of a broader push for political change. At the same time, there have been talks about a possible economic deal that could ease tensions. Those talks haven’t gone anywhere yet.

Trump hasn’t exactly lowered the temperature. He has talked about having the “honor” of “taking Cuba, in some form,” and added, “Whether I free it, take it — I think I can do anything I want with it.” At another point, he said, “We may stop by Cuba after we’re finished with this,” referring to the ongoing conflict with Iran.

Once the report was out, it spread fast. Other outlets picked it up and mostly stuck to the same facts. The split is in how they read it. The New Republic leans into the idea that this could turn into escalation. The Daily Beast puts it in the context of everything else happening globally. Wire coverage has stayed closer to the Pentagon line and kept the focus on planning.

Reporting from Associated Press adds the Cuban side. Díaz-Canel didn’t leave much room for interpretation: “We will battle, we will defend ourselves, and should we fall in battle, to die for the homeland is to live.”

There’s also the recent operation that removed Nicolás Maduro. That changed how this kind of reporting lands. It showed the U.S. is willing to act, not just talk. Reports that Cuban personnel were killed during that operation have only added to the tension.

None of this means an operation is coming. Analysts keep stressing that point. Brian Fonseca described the current moment as more about signaling than execution. “Right now, this is a lot of signaling,” he said.

He also put it in blunt terms. A U.S. operation would likely move quickly at the military level. “This will be a very easy military victory,” he said, “but a far more difficult political victory.”

That’s where things tend to get complicated, long after the initial objective is achieved.

For now, everything is still in motion. Pressure, talks, and planning are all unfolding at the same time.

It also lands in the middle of a contradiction Trump keeps leaning into. He talks about ending wars. He has floated the idea of a Nobel Peace Prize. At the same time, his administration is tied to planning for another potential operation. Adding Cuba to that list doesn’t exactly strengthen the case.

Sources

• USA TODAY, Pentagon ramps up planning for possible military ops in Cuba

• Associated Press, Cuba’s president warns US against attacking island or trying to depose him

• The New Republic, Pentagon secretly plotting military operations in Cuba next

• The Daily Beast, Pentagon plots new military operation after Trump threats